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 last map    issued 4pm dec 25    CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR  FULL  SIZE

   the 18z   nam   has come out   and it shows  Something  Important.        The  12z  Nam  was the ONE    “dry-ish “   MODEL… the 12z  Nam only  had   0.25″  over  RIC and  all of eastern VA and only  0.35  over    far  SE  Virginia and    0.25″   or less   over   DCA and DWI…. 
(  0.25    times  10  =  about  3 Inches of snow).   Now in this very cold air mass  the snow ratio     is NOT going to  be  10 :1  but more like 12 or 14  to 1.  The  18z  Nam  now    has 0.50″    into all   central VA–  covering  all of     I-95  corridor  from Emporia into  DC.      So   even the    1    dry-ish   model  has given up the   battle.      And   even More important   …  1.00″ over   lower MD  eastern shore and   se VA!!!     in other words  for those   eastern areas  12-16″ of snow …    

Finally the 15z SREF  shows  0.75 over   RIC  and the I-95  from   Emporia  N  to DC…  thats 9-10 inches of snow at RIC aand    close to theat    from DCA   to the  southeast. the SREF   just crushes   Lower MD  eastern  shore and   Hampton Roads  with 15″ of snow

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1000  DEC  25

CLICK ON  ALL IMAGES   TO   SEE  FULL SIZE

 Merry Xmas     to all !!!      FIRST  … the flurries in the area NOW will stop and start … they are NOT NOT the name event.   SECOND     Believe me I wanted to make a FULL discussion last night at 12am but it was xmas and the wife put her foor down .    THIRD  ….yes I have seen the 12z GFS — the fact that the western side of the snow –over the PEIDMONT– is    slightly less with the snow …is of NO consequence.  

IF you did not get the chance to see the the video from my a longtime friend and very experienced meteorologist Glenn Schwartzar it is. This link was made at midnight last night… yes 1201 am Xmas day. The BOWTIE is Glenn’s trademark. 
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/breaking/Changes-in-Snow-Forecast-Sunday-112446074.html

He made that Video because he was concerned of the dramatic shift in all the weather models which began on Friday afternoon but which was largely discounted throughout the weather committee because of a strongly worded statement issued by HPC.   If you dont know what or who HPC — google it– they are a branch of the national weather service and are located up in the Washington, DC beltway area.   They are among the finest collection of scientists and researchers in my opinion in the world. Amazingly from some of the super weather of nerds and facts other out there… They were quite upset and disturbed that HPC issued this special statement on Friday afternoon regarding the bad data which got into some of the weather models .

The problem is that if you don’t know if the bad data is affecting the model or not…. so you just can’t rely on the forecast and quite frankly I would rather have that information to make the decision then not knowing at all.

That being said the Non contaminated American weather Models overnight continue to show a dramatic shift to the west of this coastal storm. And it is NOT Just the American models but the Canadian the British and the European models with a violent and severe almost unprecedented shift in the track of this coastal storm. This is what has anybody up and all arms and concerned this morning.This is not just a little bit of snow in the forecast calling for dusting to 1 inch.    This is a whole different kettle of fish and the wind and the amount of snow coming for Eastern Virginia interior portions of central and Eastern North Carolina and the lower Maryland Eastern shore is going to be impressive.

The light off and on snow we will see across the Middle Atlantic states today is not the storm. That snow will be flurries at times and then stop. Do not be fooled –the main event comes tonight and most of the day on Sunday.    Tat means if you need to go out and get some supplies a what have you and make preparations you have time provider of course you can find stores open today.

This most affected portion of the commonwealth will be the from Richmond to the south and east and to the Northeast. As you get closer to the BAY the more snow you will see and the winds will be stronger. In the original forecast from back earlier in the week …I maintain that northeastern Virginia — the middle peninsula and northern neck areas —would see the most snow out of this and that appears to be the case. In addition much of the lower Maryland Eastern shore is likely to break 12″ of snow as well.

There will be a very sharp cut off in the snow shield here. Right now the models are driving the significant snow line — 6″ or more deep into the Piedmont and almost as far west as Roanoke and Charlottesville… and into metro DC and Baltimore. However this subject to some change and there is a risk that the western side of the storm may not have quite that much snow. If you are south and east of I95 in Maryland you will see much more snow a special edition approach Patuxent / St Marys and Annapolis.

One last point I want to make about eating Crow and   being accused  by    Channel  6  of  being  Chicken Little  sayingin  the Sky is falling on be right or wrong.

I hope by now many of you realize that in the initial forecast made earlier in the week …. there was a serious threat which has now come back.   was not crying the   “sky is falling for NO   reason” .    When I believe the forecast had busted the premise of that was a severe winter storm which I thought was coming.   That is why portion of the Channel 6 interview where they instered that cartoon of Chicken Llittle … was a cheap shot.     I don’t know if Aaron and or Zach were directly connected with  that bit or not … But as we can see the from the current data and what is about to happen…   I was NOT saying   ” the sky is falling ”    for  NO reason

THAT is why it is a cheap shot by Channel 6.

This winter storm coming tonight and tomorrow IS the same winter storm I talked about earlier in the week.    BUT…. it is not going to be it the EXACT same severe and long lasting event.   Therefore It would be inaccurate of me to claim that I got the forecast perfectly correct after all.    So I am not going to do that . However I did face the music by going to channel 6 and I was going to face the music by going back and WRVA on Monday and admitting that I busted.    The question today is this…. If we assume the model data is correct and we do get this major winter storm late tonight and Sunday… where will Channel 6 ‘s apology to forthcoming?

Will they Man up Like I did?  Inquiring minds want to know.

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0830 EST  DEC    24

 While it is clear that the major winter storm which I was concerned about early in the week is not going to materialize for central and Eastern Virginia North Carolina and the lower Maryland Eastern shore… there is still a threat of seeing some decent accumulating snow for SOME portions of these areas.

For that reason I am not yet willing to assert that NO SNOW — oh excuse me dusting to 1 ” – is the only thing that is going happen as some other forecasters have already committed to . The weather model data was so extreme yesterday in terms of taking this system from the southeast US coast then way out to sea that there is really only one way or possible trend we can see in the short range models over the next 12 to 24 hours. That trend can only shift WEST in the models.
That does NOT mean a major or servere   snow is threat is coming back to central VA. It is NOT.   FOR CENTRAL VA THAT   IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN …

But for SOUTHEAST VA 6 or more inches is STLL possible and for that area … that is a BIG deal. For Central VA and Richmond Even a slight shift back to the west of 25 to 50 miles will Bring in a band of moderate snow into this area.The first sign or hint of the strand weekend with the 0z Friday GFS run which developed a very powerful low pressure area well off the East coast but that ends up hammering southeastern New England including Boston with high winds and heavy snow on dec 27. Southeastern England is still under the gun with respect to getting a major snowstorm.

This slight shift to the west by the 0z and 6z GFS places a band of LIGHT snow over CENTRAL va out to Highway 15 and moderate snow well EAST of I-95 — the eastern third of Virginia into all of Hamton Roads and eastern North Carolina and lower Maryland Eastern. Right now the BEST case scenario for MAX snowfall… would be the following
Virginia Beach 6″
Newport News 5″
Richmond Va  3″
Salisbury Maryland 5″
Elizabeth City NC 6″
Nags Head NC 7″
Emporia VA 3″
Fredericksburg va 2″.

Understand that this right now is the best case for Max snowfall not necessarily be actual forecast as of 830MA dec 24 .   

At this point in time the shift to the west of the Low and its associated snow shield is not enough the forecast any sort of snowfall over 1 inch in areas west of I-95″ in in Northern VA or in central NC or in central MD

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500 pPM  DEC 23

Time for me to eat it. Unlike others I do NOT have to wait Until the very last second for the event hoping that something MGHT happened so I dont look too bad.
Someone is at the Door… its Pamela Anderson (in her prime) and she is here to show me what a BUST is.

To say that I am surprised by the massive changes in ALL of the weather models today would be an understatement. I having been doing this a long period of time and this is about as big a bust with the weather model performance as I ever seen in the MEDIUM RANGE — day 3 to day 7. The only thing that comes close to this event is the March 2001 NO storm.

Now if you are not a super weather nerd like me let me briefly remind you what happened in March 2001. The March 2001 storm was a much publicized / hyped winter storm threat which was forecasted by all of the weather models to bring blizzard like conditions to Washington, DC through Boston MARCH 1-2, 2001. On an old web site I did a study on THAT storm and what went wrong. The model agreement was complete in every aspect. HPC — the big boys as NWS forecast HQ– as well as the weather channel and local TV stations throughout the entire northeast metropolitan area were bout as bullish and the aggressive with this storm as you can ever see. Even exceeding my perspective on this storm over the last few days.

And nothing happened. Oh sure there was a significant snowstorm but nothing spectacular in Eastern New England. I was actually one of the few forecast is at the time who downplayed the threat.

What happened today with the weather models was just stunning. Usually when you move from the medium-range into the short range forecasting time period… there is often some sort of adjustment with the forecast or the storm track. That is to be expected. As I stated several times yesterday ..the severe or extreme forecast by the European model for the record or near record setting snowfall for central and Eastern Virginia was just a possibility. But all of the data –and not just the European model –showed a major east coast winter storm that would still drop heavy snow over much of North Carolina Virginia Maryland Delaware southeast Pennsylvania New Jersey Southeast New York and Southern New England.

Even as recently as 5:00 AM DEC 23 the GFS show a very decent Low pressure area of fairly close to the coast and a wide swath of significant precipitation over eastern third of VA … 0.50 to 1.25″. That would be a very good snowstorm if that were to verify.
http://tinyurl.com/2egos3w

Six hours later…. Nothing.

Today’s Model data shows that there is essentially no storm that forms anywhere near the coast. Eventually a significant Low pressure area does forms … but it is well out to sea and that is not what we are supposed to be. There is always going to be some adjustment in the forecasts as you moves from the Medium range to the Short Term as to which areas are going to see rain vs snow…. 3″ or ….6″ or 12″ . But a complete reversal like this from a major storm to nothing is a real shock.

That being said I am not gonna sit here and hide behind weather models. My forecast for the major winter storm is going to bust.

I am NOT going to be correct. Bottom Line — I screwed the Pooch.

I am going to ask WRVA and Jimmy Barrett give me time one morning perhaps after the holiday… to “fess up” and admit my Bust and apologize to central and Eastern Virginia listeners.

I do want to communicate to you that this was not about hype or getting hits on the web page… Or anything like that. Long before this event came along and all the publicity came my way WXRISK.COM has been out there. Moroever if you go to the web site you will see that there is actually very LITTLE advertising on the web site — much to the disappointment of family members and friends. This was not a case of jumping the gun because ONE weather models show the a big storm one time. I really did believe there was a lot a model data which supported a major winter storm for the Middle Atlantic region an especially for Virginia and North Carolina.

I will take crap for being wrong… and I should Because I am and that IS the way the game is played. But it is NOT fair to argue that this is all about publicity and hype.

If I had to do it over again I probably would say things and do things differently but the truth is I am a very direct type of guy. Most of my business and concerns has to do with people who trade grain in energy. Most of those folks are very abrupt and direct and they don’t have a lot of time for crap. And that directness has affected me in some ways I was not aware of. Now that WXRISK has gone viral… I probably need to spend a lot of time rethinking HOW I should chnage the way I say things … but NOT what I say.

OK lets get on to the forecast. As I stated over the past few days the key for the big event happening was that the system would come in SLOWER …not until Saturday night and and continue through most of the day on on Sunday. Clearly that is not the case based upon the new data which brings and light snow into much of the commonwealth on Saturday and Saturday afternoon. That is the good news if you want a white Christmas…. But that is BAD news if you want a big snow.

And however there is still a threat of seeing a decent snowfall for EASTERN va (only) and I am not prepared to call that off completely.Lets talk about the 12z GFS ensemble.  For those of you who again are not weather geeks weather Models Ensembles consists of 20 and or 20 different ” versions” of the same model which are one at the same time . The idea is to get a the wide variety of model solutions are outcomes. So if you are on the models 20 times and you get 10 model solutions for showing let’s say a a big snow… Five of them showing a moderate snow and five members showing no snow at all… The probability (15 of 20) is that you are going to see if a moderate or significant snowfall .

Thats the idea.      This Image shows us some of the gfs ensemble individual members.
http://tinyurl.com/23su8wg

If you take a look of the image you will see that I’ve highlighted several of these individual GFS ensemble members showing a major storm very close to the coast and dropping significant or heavy snow over Eastern Virginia. Of course it’s not a majority but it is a significant portion and that is telling me the that it still possible that this whole scenario may shift back closer to the coast.

In fact the model data today is so far to the east and so extreme that if this going to be any shift at all … it will be back to the West and it will begin on the weather models over the next 24 HRS. That does mean it is going to occur . Just that it might — MIGHT — shift back to the west. If this shift back to the west of the storm track it is going to all happen it will occur on the weather models tonight or tomorrow. If it does not happen by the the midday Friday models (12z runs) it is not going to.

Lastly the total Mis read of this event by the weather models and the event last week — is probably telling us something about this winter. This is a La Nina Winter and that fact is … I think ….the major reason why all of these weather Models in the day 3 to Day time frame are performing poorty. In addition the data shows that since 1950 there have only been 2 Moderate snowstorms for the East Cost cities and no mJaor ones during La Nina winters.

This fact is something I need to keep in mind as we go into January February and March

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7:30 AM EST DEC 23

First I apologize for the delayed in getting this morning statement out but last night really acquired me to get some decent sleep for a while .

The major change in the weather models overnight shows that the the European model which has been showing an extreme scenario for the past several model runs or cycles … is no longer stalling the intense Low pressure area off the the Southeast Virginia Coast for 24 HRS . Because the early morning European model does NOT stall the Low… the Model does NOT produce near record snowfall for central and Eastern Virginia into the Lower MD eastern shore.

That does not mean there will be NO significant snowstorm for central and East Virginia. Indeed the 6am GFS Model is again closer to the coast than the 1am GFS was last night . The 6am GFS and GFS ensemble shows 0.50 to 1.00″ liquid over eastern third of Virginia from this event and of course it is all snow.

The important model Trend in overnight weather models is that we are still seeing strong signal that there will be a significant or sharp cut off to the western edge of the snow. This trend will be reflected in the new probabilities forecasts as it comes out.

For example it is still quite possible as I have said all along that areas such as Roanoke and far western NC…. Winchester VA could miss the snow completely. Airports and locations such as Washington, DC Baltimore and Philadelphia COULD see or wide changes and their snowfall totals across the metropolitan area. This means that areas just to the north and west of these cities could see a LOT less snow than areas to the south and east of those cities.

Southeastern England is still under the gun with respect to getting a major snowstorm.

There is still an awful lot of time here with these various weather models for different changes and solutions to come out. The key piece of information that we have to resolve is how strong will this massive system be as it comes out of California today … And how is it going to interact with the piece of energy in the jet stream coming out of Central Canada.

Those two pieces of energy are going to be eight and that’s was going to develop the storm. How they meet and how they Merge will determine
1) where the Low will form
2) where the Low pressure area will track
3) where the heavy snow band is going to be
4) and any chance for the Low pressure area to stall like the European model was depicting all day yesterday.

For today the key aspect to figuring out what is going to happen with this winter storm will be the timing. If the snow was coming in Christmas afternoon or Christmas evening into central and Southern Virginia ….that means that the system is developing a little faster strongly implies that the Low pressure area is not going to stall off the Virginia Coast and bring a potentially record snowfall .

If the snow hold off until Saturday night and early Sunday morning that would imply a much slower solution and the potential for a very high or possiblye near record snowfall .

More slow… more snow . Less slow less snow.